Modelando la serie de la temperatura

La serie de la temperatura fue extraída de la base de datos del IDEAM, se tuvieron en cuenta los promedios diarios de las temperaturas en grados centigrados (°C) registradas en BogotÔ en las diferentes estaciones meteorológicas que recolectaron información de esos días. La serie de tiempo cuenta con un total de 1826 registros, de los cuales 13 (0.7%) fueron imputados puesto que no se presentaba la información necesaria. Esta imputación fue realizada a partir del método de vecinos mÔs cercanos (KNN), donde se tuvierón en cuenta 5 vecinos.

Para el modelar la serie de la temperatura se usara inicialmente un modelo SARIMA, seguido de redes recurrentes simples, LSTM y finalmente GRU. Para seleccionar el mejor modelo se tomarƔ como criterio el error cuadrƔtico medio.

Importación de Datos

In [1]:
pip install pmdarima
Looking in indexes: https://pypi.org/simple, https://us-python.pkg.dev/colab-wheels/public/simple/
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In [2]:
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import plotly.express as px
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import sklearn as sk
from sklearn import impute
from sklearn import preprocessing
from pmdarima.arima import auto_arima
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
import sklearn.externals
import joblib
from sklearn.model_selection import TimeSeriesSplit
from sklearn.impute import KNNImputer
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_pacf
import sklearn.preprocessing
import math

import sklearn.externals
import joblib
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from sklearn import metrics

import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.tsa.stattools as ts
from statsmodels.tsa.statespace.sarimax import SARIMAX


%matplotlib inline
In [3]:
import plotly.io as pio
pio.renderers.default='notebook'
In [4]:
from google.colab import drive
drive.mount('/content/drive')
Mounted at /content/drive
In [5]:
df = pd.read_csv("/content/drive/Shareddrives/Mineria /Temperatura1.csv", sep=';', header=0, decimal = ',')
Fecha = pd.date_range(start='2017-01-01', end='2021-12-31', freq='D')
df['Fecha'] = Fecha
df = df.set_index('Fecha')

print(df[pd.isnull(df.ValorObservado)])
print('En total hay' ,
      str(df['ValorObservado'].isnull().sum()) ,
      'valores sin información')
print('Correspondientes al {:.3f}% del total'
      .format(df['ValorObservado'].isnull().sum()*100/len(df)))
            ValorObservado
Fecha                     
2017-08-12             NaN
2017-12-24             NaN
2019-09-15             NaN
2019-09-16             NaN
2019-09-17             NaN
2020-11-12             NaN
2021-01-05             NaN
2021-01-06             NaN
2021-01-07             NaN
2021-01-08             NaN
2021-08-18             NaN
2021-08-20             NaN
2021-12-05             NaN
En total hay 13 valores sin información
Correspondientes al 0.712% del total

La serie presenta valores faltantes, por lo tantol se imputaran usando el método de vecinos mÔs cercanos (KNN), como se muestra a continuación.

Imputación a partir del vecino mÔs cercano

In [6]:
#Imputación de Valores usando el vecino mÔs cercano
imput = KNNImputer(n_neighbors=5, weights="uniform")

# Ajustamos el modelo e imputamos los missing values
imput.fit(df[['ValorObservado']])
df['ValorObservado'] = imput.transform(df[['ValorObservado']]).ravel()
print()
print("Valores pƩrdidos en ValorObservado: " , 
      str(df['ValorObservado'].isnull().sum()))
Valores pƩrdidos en ValorObservado:  0
In [7]:
fig = px.line(df, x=df.index, y="ValorObservado")
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Fecha")
fig.show()

Separación de datos entrenamiento y validación

Para el respectivo anƔlisis se tomarƔn el 80% de los datos para entrenamiento y validacion, el 20% restantes para prueba, dichos valores corresponden a 1460 y 365 respectivamente.

In [8]:
train_size = len(df[:1465])
test_size = len(df) - train_size
X_train, X_test = df.iloc[0:train_size], df.iloc[train_size:len(df)]
len_train = len(X_train)
len_test = len(X_test)
seq_len = 20
print(len_train, len_test)
1465 361

Modelo ARIMA (p,d,q)

Prueba de Dickey Fuller

In [9]:
adfstat, pvalue, critvalues, resstore=adfuller(X_train,regression="nc",maxlag=9,store=True,regresults=True)####maxlag es importante
print(resstore.resols.summary())

resultadoadf=adfuller(X_train,regression="nc")
print('ADF Statistic: %f' % resultadoadf[0])
print('P-value: %f' % resultadoadf[1])
for key, value in resultadoadf[4].items():
    print('\t%s: %.3f' % (key, value))
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/tsatools.py:824: FutureWarning:

trend 'nc' has been renamed to 'n' after 0.14 is released. Use 'n' now to avoid this warning.

                                 OLS Regression Results                                
=======================================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   R-squared (uncentered):                   0.136
Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared (uncentered):              0.131
Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                              25.38
Date:                Wed, 23 Nov 2022   Prob (F-statistic):                    7.64e-41
Time:                        01:32:44   Log-Likelihood:                         -1409.2
No. Observations:                1456   AIC:                                      2836.
Df Residuals:                    1447   BIC:                                      2884.
Df Model:                           9                                                  
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                                  
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
x1            -0.0006      0.001     -0.400      0.689      -0.003       0.002
x2            -0.3579      0.026    -13.586      0.000      -0.410      -0.306
x3            -0.2746      0.028     -9.855      0.000      -0.329      -0.220
x4            -0.1894      0.029     -6.590      0.000      -0.246      -0.133
x5            -0.1459      0.029     -4.948      0.000      -0.204      -0.088
x6            -0.0908      0.030     -3.068      0.002      -0.149      -0.033
x7            -0.0812      0.029     -2.770      0.006      -0.139      -0.024
x8            -0.0980      0.028     -3.447      0.001      -0.154      -0.042
x9            -0.0786      0.027     -2.936      0.003      -0.131      -0.026
==============================================================================
Omnibus:                      129.718   Durbin-Watson:                   1.995
Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              780.948
Skew:                           0.109   Prob(JB):                    2.63e-170
Kurtosis:                       6.581   Cond. No.                         33.0
==============================================================================

Notes:
[1] R² is computed without centering (uncentered) since the model does not contain a constant.
[2] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/tsatools.py:824: FutureWarning:

trend 'nc' has been renamed to 'n' after 0.14 is released. Use 'n' now to avoid this warning.

ADF Statistic: -0.361488
P-value: 0.552031
	1%: -2.567
	5%: -1.941
	10%: -1.617

La prueba nos indica la presencia de una raĆ­z unitaria, por lo tanto se procede a diferenciarla.

In [10]:
dif_dataset=X_train.diff(periods=1)
dif_dataset=dif_dataset.dropna()

fig = px.line(dif_dataset, x=dif_dataset.index, y="ValorObservado")
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Fecha")
fig.show()
In [11]:
adfstat, pvalue, critvalues, resstore=adfuller(dif_dataset,regression="nc",maxlag=9,store=True,regresults=True)####maxlag es importante
print(resstore.resols.summary())

resultadoadf=adfuller(dif_dataset,regression="nc")
print('ADF Statistic: %f' % resultadoadf[0])
print('P-value: %f' % resultadoadf[1])
for key, value in resultadoadf[4].items():
    print('\t%s: %.3f' % (key, value))
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/tsatools.py:824: FutureWarning:

trend 'nc' has been renamed to 'n' after 0.14 is released. Use 'n' now to avoid this warning.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/tsatools.py:824: FutureWarning:

trend 'nc' has been renamed to 'n' after 0.14 is released. Use 'n' now to avoid this warning.

                                 OLS Regression Results                                
=======================================================================================
Dep. Variable:                      y   R-squared (uncentered):                   0.656
Model:                            OLS   Adj. R-squared (uncentered):              0.654
Method:                 Least Squares   F-statistic:                              275.3
Date:                Wed, 23 Nov 2022   Prob (F-statistic):                        0.00
Time:                        01:32:45   Log-Likelihood:                         -1404.3
No. Observations:                1454   AIC:                                      2829.
Df Residuals:                    1444   BIC:                                      2882.
Df Model:                          10                                                  
Covariance Type:            nonrobust                                                  
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
x1            -2.5418      0.155    -16.417      0.000      -2.845      -2.238
x2             1.1798      0.146      8.060      0.000       0.893       1.467
x3             0.8967      0.136      6.616      0.000       0.631       1.162
x4             0.6980      0.123      5.657      0.000       0.456       0.940
x5             0.5443      0.110      4.938      0.000       0.328       0.760
x6             0.4437      0.096      4.628      0.000       0.256       0.632
x7             0.3475      0.080      4.332      0.000       0.190       0.505
x8             0.2290      0.064      3.604      0.000       0.104       0.354
x9             0.1205      0.045      2.648      0.008       0.031       0.210
x10            0.0680      0.027      2.533      0.011       0.015       0.121
==============================================================================
Omnibus:                      130.012   Durbin-Watson:                   1.992
Prob(Omnibus):                  0.000   Jarque-Bera (JB):              776.875
Skew:                           0.122   Prob(JB):                    2.01e-169
Kurtosis:                       6.573   Cond. No.                         29.1
==============================================================================

Notes:
[1] R² is computed without centering (uncentered) since the model does not contain a constant.
[2] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is correctly specified.
ADF Statistic: -12.369790
P-value: 0.000000
	1%: -2.567
	5%: -1.941
	10%: -1.617

GrÔficos de autocorrelación simple y parcial

In [12]:
graph1=plot_acf(dif_dataset,lags=60,adjusted=False)
graph2=plot_pacf(dif_dataset,lags=30,method='ldbiased')

A partir de los correlogramas se sugiere el ajuste de un modelo $ARIMA(4,1,2)$. El modelo se ajustara en los datos de entrenamiento definidos anteriormente, sin embargo, hagamos uso de autoarima para ver el mejor modelo usando el criterio BIC.

In [13]:
auto = auto_arima(X_train, error_action='ignore',max_p=4,d=1,max_q=2,max_order=6,seasonal=True,information_criterion='bic')
auto.summary()
Out[13]:
SARIMAX Results
Dep. Variable: y No. Observations: 1465
Model: SARIMAX(2, 1, 2) Log Likelihood -1402.617
Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2022 AIC 2815.234
Time: 01:33:04 BIC 2841.678
Sample: 01-01-2017 HQIC 2825.097
- 01-04-2021
Covariance Type: opg
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
ar.L1 1.2722 0.085 14.978 0.000 1.106 1.439
ar.L2 -0.3217 0.068 -4.762 0.000 -0.454 -0.189
ma.L1 -1.6551 0.077 -21.556 0.000 -1.806 -1.505
ma.L2 0.6597 0.075 8.826 0.000 0.513 0.806
sigma2 0.3975 0.009 44.704 0.000 0.380 0.415
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.01 Jarque-Bera (JB): 814.33
Prob(Q): 0.91 Prob(JB): 0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H): 0.85 Skew: 0.12
Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.07 Kurtosis: 6.65


Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
In [14]:
#modeloarima1=sm.tsa.SARIMAX(X_train, trend='n', order=(4,1,2))
#ajustearima1=modeloarima1.fit()
#print('ARIMA(4,1,2)')
#print(ajustearima1.summary())
#modeloarima2=sm.tsa.SARIMAX(X_train, trend='n', order=(4,1,1))
#ajustearima2=modeloarima2.fit()
#print('ARIMA(4,1,1)')
#print(ajustearima2.summary())
modeloarima3=sm.tsa.SARIMAX(X_train, trend='n', order=(3,1,3))
ajustearima3=modeloarima3.fit()
print('ARIMA(4,1,3)')
print(ajustearima3.summary())
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:471: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency D will be used.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:471: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency D will be used.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:

Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning:

Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

ARIMA(4,1,3)
                               SARIMAX Results                                
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:         ValorObservado   No. Observations:                 1465
Model:               SARIMAX(3, 1, 3)   Log Likelihood               -1401.741
Date:                Wed, 23 Nov 2022   AIC                           2817.483
Time:                        01:33:06   BIC                           2854.505
Sample:                    01-01-2017   HQIC                          2831.292
                         - 01-04-2021                                         
Covariance Type:                  opg                                         
==============================================================================
                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1          0.3918      0.147      2.662      0.008       0.103       0.680
ar.L2          0.8434      0.191      4.409      0.000       0.468       1.218
ar.L3         -0.3137      0.090     -3.486      0.000      -0.490      -0.137
ma.L1         -0.7662      0.142     -5.390      0.000      -1.045      -0.488
ma.L2         -0.8691      0.229     -3.799      0.000      -1.317      -0.421
ma.L3          0.6415      0.121      5.283      0.000       0.404       0.879
sigma2         0.3962      0.009     44.679      0.000       0.379       0.414
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q):                   0.02   Jarque-Bera (JB):               816.57
Prob(Q):                              0.88   Prob(JB):                         0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H):               0.85   Skew:                             0.13
Prob(H) (two-sided):                  0.08   Kurtosis:                         6.65
===================================================================================

Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Por lo tanto el modelo seleccionado es el ARIMA(3,1,3)

In [15]:
ARIMA_mod=sm.tsa.SARIMAX(X_train, trend='n', order=(3,1,3))
ARIMA_model=ARIMA_mod.fit()
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:471: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency D will be used.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:471: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency D will be used.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:

Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning:

Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

AnƔlisis de Residuales

Homocedasticidad, Normalidad y Correlogramas

In [16]:
#####AnƔlisis de Residuales######
residuales=ARIMA_model.resid####Residuales no estandarizados

graf_resid=ARIMA_model.plot_diagnostics()
#plt.show()
## Hipótesis nula de no heterocedasticidad
ARIMA_model.test_heteroskedasticity(method='breakvar') #[Est. de prueba, p-valor]
## Hipótesis nula de normalidad
ARIMA_model.test_normality(method='jarquebera')
#1. EstadĆ­stica de prueba
#2. El p valor
#3. Sesgo estimado de los datos
#4. Curtosis estimada
## Hipótesis nula indica que no se presenta correlación serial
Out[16]:
array([[8.16568246e+002, 4.83568793e-178, 1.27794283e-001,
        6.64979988e+000]])

GrƔficas CUSUM y CUSUM CUADRADO

In [17]:
Res_estand=ajustearima3.standardized_forecasts_error.reshape(1465,)

##CUSUM
cum=Res_estand.cumsum()
N=len(Res_estand)
N
Af_cusum=0.948###Cuantil estadĆ­stica cusum
LS=Af_cusum*math.sqrt(N)+2*Af_cusum*np.arange(1,N+1)/math.sqrt(N)
LI=-LS
plt.plot(cum)
plt.plot(LS,color='red')
plt.plot(LI,color='red')
plt.xlabel("t")
plt.ylabel("Cusm")
plt.title('EstadĆ­stica Cusum')
Out[17]:
Text(0.5, 1.0, 'EstadĆ­stica Cusum')
In [18]:
#CUSUMQ
cumq=(Res_estand**2).cumsum()/sum(Res_estand**2)
co=0.13291####Valor del cuantil aproximado para cusumsq para n/2
LQS=co+np.arange(1,N+1)/N
LQI=-co+np.arange(1,N+1)/N
plt.plot(cumq)
plt.plot(LQS,color='red')
plt.plot(LQI,color='red')
plt.xlabel("t")
plt.ylabel("Cusm")
plt.title('EstadĆ­stica Cusumsq')
Out[18]:
Text(0.5, 1.0, 'EstadĆ­stica Cusumsq')

Predicciones usando Rolling

In [19]:
## Rolling
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
val = df.values
size = len(df[:1465])
train, test = val[1:size], val[size:len(val)]
history = [x for x in train]
predicciones = list()
for t in range(len(test)):
	modelo = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(history, trend='n', order=(3,1,3))
	modelo_fit = modelo.fit(disp=0)
	output = modelo_fit.forecast()
	yhat = output[0]
	predicciones.append(yhat)
	obs = test[t]
	history.append(obs)
	print('Predicción=%f, Esperado=%f' % (yhat, obs))
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:

Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning:

Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.048250, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.100327, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.915657, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.985208, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.850243, Esperado=13.904167
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.086425, Esperado=14.095833
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.343691, Esperado=14.689583
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.956100, Esperado=14.812500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.996150, Esperado=14.525000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.096810, Esperado=14.435417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.929768, Esperado=14.772917
Predicción=14.339364, Esperado=14.225000
Predicción=13.878769, Esperado=14.554167
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.248322, Esperado=15.037500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.411382, Esperado=14.262500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.139183, Esperado=13.660417
Predicción=13.583342, Esperado=14.210417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.014423, Esperado=14.185417
Predicción=13.848590, Esperado=14.747917
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.365035, Esperado=14.202083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.916428, Esperado=13.739583
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.772820, Esperado=13.775000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.591333, Esperado=13.952083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.831228, Esperado=14.037500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.728948, Esperado=15.393750
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.745862, Esperado=13.760417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.691540, Esperado=13.306250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.516218, Esperado=14.506250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.043342, Esperado=14.958333
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.545592, Esperado=15.801655
Predicción=15.310719, Esperado=14.427083
Predicción=14.412201, Esperado=15.010417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.635424, Esperado=15.353125
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.995686, Esperado=14.982927
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.690456, Esperado=15.475000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.098988, Esperado=12.189236
Predicción=12.985720, Esperado=11.627461
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.478444, Esperado=11.453141
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.016649, Esperado=10.639943
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.409150, Esperado=10.501130
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.039205, Esperado=10.137255
Predicción=10.723662, Esperado=10.589365
Predicción=10.764278, Esperado=10.751375
Predicción=10.937754, Esperado=10.605245
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.725118, Esperado=11.199156
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.205003, Esperado=10.319318
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.542604, Esperado=10.322792
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.622956, Esperado=10.043812
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.274920, Esperado=9.711139
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.135731, Esperado=9.556838
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=9.878690, Esperado=10.546127
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.558688, Esperado=10.386885
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.393826, Esperado=11.358172
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.142692, Esperado=10.740192
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.724908, Esperado=12.566669
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.035983, Esperado=12.406918
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.984770, Esperado=10.718101
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.140548, Esperado=11.061100
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.157566, Esperado=10.096182
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.628952, Esperado=10.305365
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.521788, Esperado=11.195045
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.143992, Esperado=11.117990
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.054496, Esperado=11.254932
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.251760, Esperado=11.857158
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.575720, Esperado=11.326666
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.419388, Esperado=10.898674
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.032090, Esperado=10.467782
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.811259, Esperado=10.176652
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.475296, Esperado=10.741586
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.837840, Esperado=12.725072
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.039787, Esperado=12.053330
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.886201, Esperado=10.760028
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.023664, Esperado=10.765282
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.004433, Esperado=10.923616
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.011346, Esperado=11.228104
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.228235, Esperado=10.116462
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.493999, Esperado=10.699347
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.813479, Esperado=11.118090
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.049275, Esperado=11.633818
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.463040, Esperado=13.181500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.471105, Esperado=11.716918
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.712025, Esperado=10.936443
Predicción=11.201013, Esperado=10.959290
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.140120, Esperado=10.937249
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.094607, Esperado=11.071480
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.133916, Esperado=12.777165
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.199284, Esperado=15.513420
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.139921, Esperado=15.134960
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.198845, Esperado=15.343031
Predicción=14.539336, Esperado=15.427457
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.748110, Esperado=13.111795
Predicción=13.226983, Esperado=11.101287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.844088, Esperado=11.349725
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.890501, Esperado=11.678762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.892040, Esperado=10.773206
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.248408, Esperado=11.396884
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.541217, Esperado=12.913803
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.552306, Esperado=10.605767
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.038097, Esperado=10.881137
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.195578, Esperado=11.102247
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.194553, Esperado=11.221336
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.321365, Esperado=12.562404
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.143402, Esperado=11.300695
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.436116, Esperado=11.746363
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.677332, Esperado=11.516996
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.560463, Esperado=10.949360
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.153418, Esperado=11.712330
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.649044, Esperado=11.814328
Predicción=11.697993, Esperado=11.961618
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.860005, Esperado=12.608110
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.277038, Esperado=12.606314
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.354487, Esperado=12.429562
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.273286, Esperado=11.554298
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.733385, Esperado=11.373678
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.557570, Esperado=10.858738
Predicción=11.176553, Esperado=9.319421
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.079078, Esperado=10.886243
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.994967, Esperado=10.639914
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.771612, Esperado=10.605574
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.785488, Esperado=10.944002
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.937723, Esperado=11.035748
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.066660, Esperado=11.633389
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.423432, Esperado=11.981947
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.731499, Esperado=10.937933
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.065326, Esperado=11.185363
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.258468, Esperado=9.750637
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.247630, Esperado=11.086346
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.118677, Esperado=11.560018
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.356771, Esperado=12.020559
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.828544, Esperado=12.470617
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.067712, Esperado=12.260976
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.103987, Esperado=12.179022
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.997903, Esperado=11.366948
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.536162, Esperado=12.112803
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.952463, Esperado=11.688320
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.738589, Esperado=11.939613
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.858840, Esperado=12.216225
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.080519, Esperado=12.454674
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.227049, Esperado=12.553978
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.357520, Esperado=12.169758
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.109284, Esperado=11.470051
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.669401, Esperado=11.721944
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.772512, Esperado=11.005056
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.293823, Esperado=12.425393
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.166437, Esperado=11.779217
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.757110, Esperado=11.962201
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.920279, Esperado=11.995578
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.913958, Esperado=12.145927
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.067834, Esperado=12.431854
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.225069, Esperado=12.241948
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.162549, Esperado=11.783062
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.830148, Esperado=11.849130
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.895941, Esperado=11.632640
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.690497, Esperado=11.720925
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.767944, Esperado=10.919459
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.179236, Esperado=10.769530
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.080058, Esperado=11.310147
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.327144, Esperado=11.644863
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.587411, Esperado=11.839470
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.692767, Esperado=11.382692
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.456164, Esperado=11.325762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.378655, Esperado=11.521251
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.529087, Esperado=11.125536
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.233777, Esperado=10.830612
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.054686, Esperado=11.267479
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.281485, Esperado=11.275936
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.304694, Esperado=9.976404
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.424135, Esperado=10.483145
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.717219, Esperado=10.878166
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.895429, Esperado=11.063389
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.071534, Esperado=11.610578
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.405590, Esperado=10.467043
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.724179, Esperado=10.570002
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.745059, Esperado=10.928022
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.963640, Esperado=10.955242
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.978321, Esperado=10.771634
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.868732, Esperado=10.328174
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.560888, Esperado=9.892698
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.250034, Esperado=10.935253
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.888608, Esperado=10.352670
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.519518, Esperado=9.406922
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=9.883647, Esperado=9.795370
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.059425, Esperado=10.960858
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.805515, Esperado=11.163661
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.974762, Esperado=11.057287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.975952, Esperado=10.699836
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.760540, Esperado=11.201507
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.115616, Esperado=11.403890
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.251757, Esperado=10.993720
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.045322, Esperado=9.929940
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.320100, Esperado=10.386170
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.584649, Esperado=11.229247
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.078601, Esperado=11.376511
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.243901, Esperado=11.443807
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.301139, Esperado=9.764229
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.271978, Esperado=9.912467
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.248124, Esperado=10.490149
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.573357, Esperado=10.910690
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.846977, Esperado=10.967284
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.921648, Esperado=10.881197
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.850451, Esperado=11.420413
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.267123, Esperado=10.789903
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.874996, Esperado=10.678103
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.809388, Esperado=10.991755
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.976874, Esperado=11.474312
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.324322, Esperado=11.068369
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.076842, Esperado=10.795270
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.927167, Esperado=11.829580
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.572486, Esperado=10.370266
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.657320, Esperado=10.231158
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.538963, Esperado=9.229968
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=9.794826, Esperado=11.312520
Predicción=11.113729, Esperado=15.113555
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.640983, Esperado=14.411025
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.477251, Esperado=12.267202
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.192033, Esperado=12.109481
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.118631, Esperado=12.392894
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.276674, Esperado=12.005023
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.035704, Esperado=11.973447
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.976969, Esperado=11.997905
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.996164, Esperado=7.833924
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=9.210723, Esperado=14.086301
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.003581, Esperado=11.835636
Predicción=11.899587, Esperado=12.154938
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.993564, Esperado=11.638630
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.701864, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.967830, Esperado=12.084829
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.877836, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.053331, Esperado=12.310641
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.146154, Esperado=12.318813
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.268147, Esperado=13.294149
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.791461, Esperado=12.607703
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.444357, Esperado=12.339091
Predicción=12.292566, Esperado=12.218233
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.204071, Esperado=11.997915
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.049458, Esperado=11.484860
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.689451, Esperado=11.565582
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.682951, Esperado=11.804088
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.801085, Esperado=11.224449
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.435063, Esperado=10.695781
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.047263, Esperado=11.196997
Predicción=11.292631, Esperado=10.644450
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.906304, Esperado=10.743692
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.933717, Esperado=11.229272
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.200750, Esperado=10.679783
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.873028, Esperado=11.029767
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.066124, Esperado=10.853505
Predicción=10.954640, Esperado=11.218304
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.172755, Esperado=14.608000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.472039, Esperado=14.619192
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.669304, Esperado=13.394737
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.945975, Esperado=13.483000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.190608, Esperado=14.152083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.483896, Esperado=13.561856
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.336829, Esperado=13.732323
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.439079, Esperado=14.229703
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.737157, Esperado=14.128431
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.768462, Esperado=13.656566
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.493595, Esperado=14.731250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.096538, Esperado=14.755446
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.339273, Esperado=14.190909
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.963878, Esperado=13.908081
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.841417, Esperado=14.428866
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.183232, Esperado=14.637000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.415368, Esperado=14.355882
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.237238, Esperado=14.379208
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.300797, Esperado=14.901010
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.593091, Esperado=14.137374
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.220786, Esperado=13.501042
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.716619, Esperado=14.625253
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.423158, Esperado=14.868317
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.481041, Esperado=14.956311
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.626661, Esperado=16.274757
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.550669, Esperado=15.870408
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.540099, Esperado=15.423762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.258794, Esperado=15.578000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.385068, Esperado=15.883673
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.588336, Esperado=15.062626
Predicción=15.126707, Esperado=15.024242
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.875731, Esperado=13.848000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.216139, Esperado=15.004950
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.936930, Esperado=15.237113
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.984351, Esperado=15.280808
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.098056, Esperado=15.814737
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.547455, Esperado=14.193939
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.530151, Esperado=13.630612
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.870577, Esperado=13.374257
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.807179, Esperado=13.992708
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.156130, Esperado=14.209709
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.271494, Esperado=14.584848
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.535181, Esperado=14.463636
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.485478, Esperado=15.170833
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.934873, Esperado=14.745098
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.698615, Esperado=14.848000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.797952, Esperado=15.171287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.980826, Esperado=14.476768
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.540743, Esperado=15.166327
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.914175, Esperado=14.316327
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.484152, Esperado=14.372000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.394680, Esperado=14.168687
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.290496, Esperado=14.838776
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.705528, Esperado=13.208313
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.691072, Esperado=11.924850
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.773480, Esperado=11.312672
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.145227, Esperado=11.809373
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.365134, Esperado=10.413340
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.330895, Esperado=10.923445
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.560511, Esperado=11.402217
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.782329, Esperado=11.661244
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.684994, Esperado=11.189472
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.576525, Esperado=12.089160
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.983419, Esperado=12.085063
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.990483, Esperado=11.238124
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.582675, Esperado=11.361238
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.567596, Esperado=11.600993
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.868755, Esperado=12.299494
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.175741, Esperado=11.778526
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.953149, Esperado=11.223333
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.586447, Esperado=10.984214
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.419436, Esperado=11.403996
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.458500, Esperado=11.379385
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.475890, Esperado=11.449462
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.515184, Esperado=11.115287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.354317, Esperado=11.423239
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.460482, Esperado=11.002445
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.195553, Esperado=10.697950
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.067842, Esperado=11.472068
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.418661, Esperado=11.917354
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.805453, Esperado=11.313914
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.505872, Esperado=10.783473
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.130651, Esperado=10.934725
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.099307, Esperado=11.011451
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.080315, Esperado=11.164761
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.194543, Esperado=10.787241
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.937507, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.825913, Esperado=11.486280
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.494019, Esperado=11.031364
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.191596, Esperado=11.622056
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.543603, Esperado=12.158766
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.026073, Esperado=12.425816
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.193568, Esperado=11.908727
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.923450, Esperado=11.285624
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.407828, Esperado=10.875324
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.212090, Esperado=11.348469
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.349322, Esperado=11.169345
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.273898, Esperado=10.819856
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.004401, Esperado=11.373000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.344329, Esperado=10.888649
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.024287, Esperado=11.754544
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.598320, Esperado=11.808824
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.689483, Esperado=11.784558
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.713379, Esperado=11.799163
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.681373, Esperado=11.896085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.823035, Esperado=11.595586
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.579757, Esperado=11.512913
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.569668, Esperado=11.365882
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.396203, Esperado=11.101017
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.269256, Esperado=11.327841
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.328779, Esperado=10.928758
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.181888, Esperado=10.474350
Predicción=10.734687, Esperado=11.333574
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

In [20]:
d=pd.DataFrame(predicciones)
d=d.set_index(df.index[len(X_train):])
d=pd.concat([d, X_test], axis=1)
d['ARIMA_Predict']=d[0]
joblib.dump(d,'/content/drive/Shareddrives/Mineria /ARIMA_Predict')
Out[20]:
['/content/drive/Shareddrives/Mineria /ARIMA_Predict']
In [21]:
# plot y_train, y_test, and testPredict using plotly
fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[: len(X_train)],
        y=X_train['ValorObservado'],
        mode="lines",
        name="Entrenamiento",
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[len(X_train):],
        y=X_test['ValorObservado'],
        mode="lines",
        name="Prueba",
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[len(X_train):],
        y=d.ARIMA_Predict,
        mode="lines",
        name="Predicción",
    )
)
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Fecha")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="ValorObservado")
fig.show()

ECM usando Rolling

In [22]:
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
error = mean_squared_error(d.ValorObservado, d.ARIMA_Predict)
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (error))
Test Score: 0.68 RMSE

Predicción 5 pasos adelante

In [23]:
## Rolling
val = df.values
size = len(df[:1465])
train, test = val[1:size], val[size:len(val)]
history = [x for x in train]
predicciones = list()
for t in range(len(test)):
	modelo = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(history, trend='n', order=(3,1,3))
	modelo_fit = modelo.fit(disp=0)
	output = modelo_fit.forecast(5)
	yhat = output[4]
	predicciones.append(yhat)
	obs = test[t]
	history.append(obs)
	print('Predicción=%f, Esperado=%f' % (yhat, obs))
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:

Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning:

Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.

/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.996235, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.924534, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.733528, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.809168, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.703210, Esperado=13.904167
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.347146, Esperado=14.095833
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.627150, Esperado=14.689583
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.063270, Esperado=14.812500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.199312, Esperado=14.525000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.368920, Esperado=14.435417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.311761, Esperado=14.772917
Predicción=13.595119, Esperado=14.225000
Predicción=13.342733, Esperado=14.554167
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.600409, Esperado=15.037500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.705159, Esperado=14.262500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.617803, Esperado=13.660417
Predicción=13.249778, Esperado=14.210417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.490843, Esperado=14.185417
Predicción=13.390832, Esperado=14.747917
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.735649, Esperado=14.202083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.497138, Esperado=13.739583
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.434999, Esperado=13.775000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.253732, Esperado=13.952083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.440223, Esperado=14.037500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.327837, Esperado=15.393750
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.979085, Esperado=13.760417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.459589, Esperado=13.306250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.343224, Esperado=14.506250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.600546, Esperado=14.958333
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.004525, Esperado=15.801655
Predicción=14.806760, Esperado=14.427083
Predicción=14.104045, Esperado=15.010417
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.200593, Esperado=15.353125
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.490141, Esperado=14.982927
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.290132, Esperado=15.475000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.623104, Esperado=12.189236
Predicción=13.344311, Esperado=11.627461
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.787278, Esperado=11.453141
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.317782, Esperado=10.639943
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.791822, Esperado=10.501130
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.462453, Esperado=10.137255
Predicción=11.106108, Esperado=10.589365
Predicción=11.018839, Esperado=10.751375
Predicción=11.105867, Esperado=10.605245
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.977676, Esperado=11.199156
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.285090, Esperado=10.319318
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.845332, Esperado=10.322792
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.885357, Esperado=10.043812
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.628084, Esperado=9.711139
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.482065, Esperado=9.556838
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.384249, Esperado=10.546127
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.736378, Esperado=10.386885
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.637753, Esperado=11.358172
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.089798, Esperado=10.740192
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.891658, Esperado=12.566669
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.713711, Esperado=12.406918
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.798388, Esperado=10.718101
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.350234, Esperado=11.061100
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.326006, Esperado=10.096182
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.020378, Esperado=10.305365
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.822346, Esperado=11.195045
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.190379, Esperado=11.117990
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.169223, Esperado=11.254932
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.295369, Esperado=11.857158
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.520274, Esperado=11.326666
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.482868, Esperado=10.898674
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.205311, Esperado=10.467782
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.063998, Esperado=10.176652
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.799711, Esperado=10.741586
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.979798, Esperado=12.725072
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.752534, Esperado=12.053330
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.753943, Esperado=10.760028
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.253002, Esperado=10.765282
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.186703, Esperado=10.923616
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.152254, Esperado=11.228104
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.258886, Esperado=10.116462
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.828137, Esperado=10.699347
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.957321, Esperado=11.118090
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.078086, Esperado=11.633818
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.392007, Esperado=13.181500
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.973491, Esperado=11.716918
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.675529, Esperado=10.936443
Predicción=11.369760, Esperado=10.959290
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.280479, Esperado=10.937249
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.221742, Esperado=11.071480
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.212577, Esperado=12.777165
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.849632, Esperado=15.513420
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.005013, Esperado=15.134960
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.338002, Esperado=15.343031
Predicción=13.671116, Esperado=15.427457
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.985359, Esperado=13.111795
Predicción=13.475540, Esperado=11.101287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.283820, Esperado=11.349725
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.181603, Esperado=11.678762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.019293, Esperado=10.773206
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.594228, Esperado=11.396884
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.649227, Esperado=12.913803
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.192562, Esperado=10.605767
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.401194, Esperado=10.881137
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.416714, Esperado=11.102247
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.347622, Esperado=11.221336
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.401762, Esperado=12.562404
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.835465, Esperado=11.300695
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.529768, Esperado=11.746363
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.645225, Esperado=11.516996
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.589182, Esperado=10.949360
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.356927, Esperado=11.712330
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.596934, Esperado=11.814328
Predicción=11.633651, Esperado=11.961618
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.758617, Esperado=12.608110
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.000347, Esperado=12.606314
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.097811, Esperado=12.429562
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.093057, Esperado=11.554298
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.822303, Esperado=11.373678
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.673164, Esperado=10.858738
Predicción=11.429171, Esperado=9.319421
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.759814, Esperado=10.886243
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.117386, Esperado=10.639914
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.981325, Esperado=10.605574
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.995755, Esperado=10.944002
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.033371, Esperado=11.035748
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.148975, Esperado=11.633389
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.319157, Esperado=11.981947
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.537684, Esperado=10.937933
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.225811, Esperado=11.185363
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.317700, Esperado=9.750637
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.768098, Esperado=11.086346
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.183102, Esperado=11.560018
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.308203, Esperado=12.020559
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.652892, Esperado=12.470617
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.799273, Esperado=12.260976
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.912912, Esperado=12.179022
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.863359, Esperado=11.366948
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.623616, Esperado=12.112803
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.815917, Esperado=11.688320
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.733146, Esperado=11.939613
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.776068, Esperado=12.216225
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.918437, Esperado=12.454674
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.010224, Esperado=12.553978
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.116775, Esperado=12.169758
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.014173, Esperado=11.470051
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.777703, Esperado=11.721944
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.783714, Esperado=11.005056
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.503107, Esperado=12.425393
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.916871, Esperado=11.779217
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.745248, Esperado=11.962201
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.819387, Esperado=11.995578
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.834768, Esperado=12.145927
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.940730, Esperado=12.431854
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.027964, Esperado=12.241948
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.018768, Esperado=11.783062
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.843865, Esperado=11.849130
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.864937, Esperado=11.632640
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.733174, Esperado=11.720925
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.748639, Esperado=10.919459
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.424138, Esperado=10.769530
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.318604, Esperado=11.310147
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.388954, Esperado=11.644863
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.534964, Esperado=11.839470
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.603357, Esperado=11.382692
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.505404, Esperado=11.325762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.455568, Esperado=11.521251
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.527587, Esperado=11.125536
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.361710, Esperado=10.830612
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.247974, Esperado=11.267479
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.349127, Esperado=11.275936
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.349676, Esperado=9.976404
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.876687, Esperado=10.483145
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.955432, Esperado=10.878166
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.014640, Esperado=11.063389
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.135345, Esperado=11.610578
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.307483, Esperado=10.467043
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.988919, Esperado=10.570002
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.963065, Esperado=10.928022
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.056434, Esperado=10.955242
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.066406, Esperado=10.771634
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.009706, Esperado=10.328174
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.836753, Esperado=9.892698
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.634971, Esperado=10.935253
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.948110, Esperado=10.352670
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.776263, Esperado=9.406922
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.387624, Esperado=9.795370
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.405599, Esperado=10.960858
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.778904, Esperado=11.163661
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.926087, Esperado=11.057287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.981159, Esperado=10.699836
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.897878, Esperado=11.201507
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.097549, Esperado=11.403890
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.191538, Esperado=10.993720
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.125269, Esperado=9.929940
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.725013, Esperado=10.386170
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.803442, Esperado=11.229247
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.037012, Esperado=11.376511
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.167545, Esperado=11.443807
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.235782, Esperado=9.764229
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.727881, Esperado=9.912467
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.612308, Esperado=10.490149
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.733669, Esperado=10.910690
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.898902, Esperado=10.967284
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.946211, Esperado=10.881197
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.871136, Esperado=11.420413
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.187388, Esperado=10.789903
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.002814, Esperado=10.678103
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.959976, Esperado=10.991755
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.018435, Esperado=11.474312
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.229230, Esperado=11.068369
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.132871, Esperado=10.795270
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.057114, Esperado=11.829580
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.381055, Esperado=10.370266
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.942195, Esperado=10.231158
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.827358, Esperado=9.229968
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.376810, Esperado=11.312520
Predicción=10.990933, Esperado=15.113555
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.391420, Esperado=14.411025
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.571889, Esperado=12.267202
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.950730, Esperado=12.109481
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.940546, Esperado=12.392894
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.072563, Esperado=12.005023
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.963450, Esperado=11.973447
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.907891, Esperado=11.997905
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.912702, Esperado=7.833924
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=10.444633, Esperado=14.086301
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.136163, Esperado=11.835636
Predicción=11.725525, Esperado=12.154938
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.818043, Esperado=11.638630
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.718789, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.901796, Esperado=12.084829
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.916650, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.874068, Esperado=12.310641
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.090881, Esperado=12.318813
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.011667, Esperado=13.294149
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.316427, Esperado=12.607703
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.211764, Esperado=12.339091
Predicción=12.145444, Esperado=12.218233
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.093899, Esperado=11.997915
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.996841, Esperado=11.484860
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.778049, Esperado=11.565582
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.700646, Esperado=11.804088
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.757529, Esperado=11.224449
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.553921, Esperado=10.695781
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.320087, Esperado=11.196997
Predicción=11.371142, Esperado=10.644450
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.145604, Esperado=10.743692
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.116112, Esperado=11.229272
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.233121, Esperado=10.679783
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.065441, Esperado=11.029767
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.139424, Esperado=10.853505
Predicción=11.081725, Esperado=11.218304
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.185438, Esperado=14.608000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.311999, Esperado=14.619192
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.780451, Esperado=13.394737
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.524079, Esperado=13.483000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.735539, Esperado=14.152083
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.115184, Esperado=13.561856
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.946500, Esperado=13.732323
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.983440, Esperado=14.229703
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.101217, Esperado=14.128431
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.250841, Esperado=13.656566
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.124781, Esperado=14.731250
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.339560, Esperado=14.755446
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.940395, Esperado=14.190909
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.548940, Esperado=13.908081
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.596629, Esperado=14.428866
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.928083, Esperado=14.637000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.160675, Esperado=14.355882
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.122852, Esperado=14.379208
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.192811, Esperado=14.901010
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.322311, Esperado=14.137374
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.227538, Esperado=13.501042
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.929951, Esperado=14.625253
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.280484, Esperado=14.868317
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.066892, Esperado=14.956311
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.157556, Esperado=16.274757
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.938878, Esperado=15.870408
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.142060, Esperado=15.423762
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.064950, Esperado=15.578000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.187353, Esperado=15.883673
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.248562, Esperado=15.062626
Predicción=15.181397, Esperado=15.024242
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.542692, Esperado=13.848000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.537804, Esperado=15.004950
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.892317, Esperado=15.237113
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.735988, Esperado=15.280808
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.857873, Esperado=15.814737
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=15.312135, Esperado=14.193939
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.740605, Esperado=13.630612
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.824401, Esperado=13.374257
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.271742, Esperado=13.992708
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.375731, Esperado=14.209709
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.394307, Esperado=14.584848
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.513420, Esperado=14.463636
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.506177, Esperado=15.170833
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.745176, Esperado=14.745098
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.644437, Esperado=14.848000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.699946, Esperado=15.171287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.812658, Esperado=14.476768
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.449351, Esperado=15.166327
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.681185, Esperado=14.316327
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.591759, Esperado=14.372000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.324605, Esperado=14.168687
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.386606, Esperado=14.838776
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.594520, Esperado=13.208313
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=14.046007, Esperado=11.924850
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.535627, Esperado=11.312672
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=13.012312, Esperado=11.809373
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.968183, Esperado=10.413340
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.313622, Esperado=10.923445
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.370447, Esperado=11.402217
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.475596, Esperado=11.661244
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.910267, Esperado=11.189472
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.246934, Esperado=12.089160
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.976259, Esperado=12.085063
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.022043, Esperado=11.238124
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.941199, Esperado=11.361238
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.925759, Esperado=11.600993
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.284086, Esperado=12.299494
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.237369, Esperado=11.778526
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.199585, Esperado=11.223333
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.030160, Esperado=10.984214
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.899446, Esperado=11.403996
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.613405, Esperado=11.379385
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.562823, Esperado=11.449462
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.653809, Esperado=11.115287
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.591006, Esperado=11.423239
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.565095, Esperado=11.002445
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.380332, Esperado=10.697950
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.534641, Esperado=11.472068
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.428721, Esperado=11.917354
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.884144, Esperado=11.313914
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.773020, Esperado=10.783473
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.561468, Esperado=10.934725
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.291854, Esperado=11.011451
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.202851, Esperado=11.164761
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.230513, Esperado=10.787241
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.093717, Esperado=11.939085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.906758, Esperado=11.486280
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.643368, Esperado=11.031364
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.270947, Esperado=11.622056
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.588773, Esperado=12.158766
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.030030, Esperado=12.425816
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=12.162390, Esperado=11.908727
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.847419, Esperado=11.285624
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.491885, Esperado=10.875324
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.462800, Esperado=11.348469
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.426281, Esperado=11.169345
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.372886, Esperado=10.819856
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.203460, Esperado=11.373000
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.358546, Esperado=10.888649
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.166258, Esperado=11.754544
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.465304, Esperado=11.808824
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.698915, Esperado=11.784558
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.592056, Esperado=11.799163
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.577084, Esperado=11.896085
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.687733, Esperado=11.595586
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.562207, Esperado=11.512913
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.563161, Esperado=11.365882
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.449408, Esperado=11.101017
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.381778, Esperado=11.327841
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.384908, Esperado=10.928758
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

Predicción=11.404718, Esperado=10.474350
Predicción=11.019073, Esperado=11.333574
/usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:

Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals

In [24]:
d=pd.DataFrame(predicciones)
d=d.set_index(df.index[len(X_train):])
d=pd.concat([d, X_test], axis=1)
d['ARIMA_Predict']=d[0]
joblib.dump(d,'/content/drive/Shareddrives/Mineria /ARIMA_Predict')
Out[24]:
['/content/drive/Shareddrives/Mineria /ARIMA_Predict']
In [25]:
# plot y_train, y_test, and testPredict using plotly
fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[: len(X_train)],
        y=X_train['ValorObservado'],
        mode="lines",
        name="Entrenamiento",
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[len(X_train):],
        y=X_test['ValorObservado'],
        mode="lines",
        name="Prueba",
    )
)
fig.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df.index[len(X_train):],
        y=d.ARIMA_Predict,
        mode="lines",
        name="Predicción",
    )
)
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Fecha")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="ValorObservado")
fig.show()
In [26]:
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
error = mean_squared_error(d.ValorObservado, d.ARIMA_Predict)
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (error))
Test Score: 0.84 RMSE

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